CHINA: THE UGLY DRAGON -1

The dragon has started to spread its wings and naturally, the space in which it already is so overcrowded, the dragon’s jostling is causing a lot of concerns, problems and tension not only in the APAC region, but also around the world.

India has always been wary of China and its recent actions are justifying that fact. Even though India has been spearheading the NAM since the cold war days, China seems to have trust issues with one of its closest neighbor, at least geographically. This can be gauged from the fact of its ties with Pakistan both on economic front and more disturbingly on the military front.

The recent issues that I want to point out cover a facet of areas and not confined to the political arena. It encompasses military, Socio-economic and the political areas. In this first of the 2 series I try to explain the circumstances on the military arena as this definitely is the most alarming situation developing at our door step.

THE DRAGON BREATHES FIRE

There have been more than 100 “reported” incursions into the Indian Territory by the Chinese forces in the last one year.  These are official figures and as known in India, the number in reality will be much higher. We can be almost certain there has been no provocation from the Indian side. Therefore, why is China being so aggressive with one of its biggest trade partner?

Is China, by being aggressive, sending a message to the other emerging power that it is still the big brother? Is this a message to the rest of the world that China has indeed arrived on the world stage? Does it want to flex its military muscles and keep a check on India in case it gets a little adventurous?

The intention of the Chinese is not very clear as they always have been a closed society. Some might attribute this behavior to the fact that it is surrounded by hostile neighbors. But again, can one of the reasons for the neighbors’ becoming hostile is because of the military build-up and muscle flexing of the Chinese? This question can only be answered by them.

The modernization drive of the Chinese military can surely be a superb case study. The zeal, drive and the speed with which they are progressing is a case of wonder and alarm for the rest of the world. The Chinese have upped their defence spending substantially along the lines of their meteoric GDP growth. For the year 2012, china’s reported defence budget is $160 billion. This is the reported figure and the actual spending will be much higher. Key areas such as R&D are kept off this estimate and the calculation is only for “known assets”.

The rapid military modernization of Tibet is a clear example of its increasing offense/defence preparedness towards India. PLA has built runways along the border to handle large aircrafts that can rapidly deploy troops in a spate of hours and not days unlike earlier times. Highest motor able all weather roads and bridges have been built to cater to the rapid troop movement from interior china through Tibet and finally to the Sino-Indian border. China has created battalions with a strike group specifically to reach point A with lightning speed and take over that area. Conventional war strategies have now been shelved.

The PLA is still the largest army in the world, with an active force of 2.3 million. But China's real military strength increasingly lies elsewhere. The US planners think China is intent on acquiring what is called in the jargon A2/AD, or “anti-access/area denial” capabilities. The idea here is to use pinpoint ground attack and anti-ship missiles, a growing fleet of modern submarines and cyber and anti-satellite weapons to destroy or disable another nation's military assets from afar, thereby disabling the communications and organizing capabilities of the enemy.

Where does all this leave India? Even though India has also taken note of all the activities across border, its speed of modernization is a cause of concern. Should there be an attack from the across the border, with the present facilities and access points, Indian troops are expected to reach with enforcements in 3 days!!,  whereas the Chinese reinforcements are expected to reach within 15 hours. This clearly provides the preparedness, or the lack of it from the Indian perspective

The Indian defence establishment is very keen and eager to change this scenario but lack of political will and guidance is hurting the armed forces. The defence ministry still denies the fact about the incursions and is not taking note of the activities with the seriousness it should. India indeed has a lot of problems within, just like China. But that should not be a reason for complacency to be shown, especially in the matters of national security.

The dragon has woken and is breathing fire. Isn’t it time for the tiger to sharpen its claws too? The time is NOW!! Else there may not be a tomorrow.

PS: Certain facts and figures have been quoted from The Economist.